Trump & Impeachment

One of the biggest hot-button topics going on right now, is naturally President Trump and impeachment. Will he, or will he not get impeached?

What Is Impeachment?

To answer that, let’s first get a quick look at what it means to be “impeached”. For an impeachment to take place, proceedings start in the House of Representatives with a simple vote. If the vote passes, then the process moves to the senate where a trial is conducted. Once the trial is complete, the Senate will be required to vote on whether to convict or not. If the senate does not reach a 2/3 majority to convict, Trump remains in office, even though he was impeached.

That last step is particularly important. Many people think that getting impeached means an instant one-way ticket out of the White House. Not true. A president can be impeached, and then remain in office after, simply because the vote to convict did not reach 2/3 majority. It is worth noting that no U.S. President in history has been convicted after impeachment, with all the previous instances of impeachment failing to reach a majority vote for conviction. (Or in Nixon’s case, he resigned before impeachment)

According to the constitution, impeachment is only done on the grounds of “treason, bribery, or other high crimes or misdemeanours”. Also note that it is a political process and not akin to criminal proceedings in court.

What Is President Trump Accused Of?

In short, Trump has been accused of using his position to dangle “carrots” to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in order to start a smear campaign on Joe Biden, former Vice-President and one of the 2020 Democratic Presidential candidates in the running. Trump had purportedly tried to pressure President Volodymyr into digging up information about former Vice-President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, who had worked for a Ukrainian company back when Joe Biden was vice-president. Trump is accused of withholding some $400m in military aid to Ukraine even after Congress had allocated it, and also offering to have a White House meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky, which would have been a huge boon for Ukraine. All of these instances then, amounting to an abuse of presidential power.

Evidence of these allegations apparently come from a few sources, such as an anonymous intelligence official that submitted a transcript of a phone call between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky. During the phone call, it appeared that Trump was pressuring President Zelensky to launch its own investigation into Joe and Hunter Biden and to make that investigation as public as possible. This phone call also came on the back of Trump just having blocked US Military aid from being released to Ukraine, and a senior official testified that release of this aid was firmly conditional on Ukraine investigation Biden and making it public.

Naturally, Trump has defended himself and those defences do in fact hold water. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he felt no pressure and that the US military aid was eventually released to the Ukrainians, who themselves said they were not aware the aid was held back.

Another Case of Trump Bashing?

It is no secret that the mass media and the Democrats seriously dislike Trump. The media and the Democrats have never had anything nice to say about Trump, and anything and everything he does is never good, only bad. Even before these formal impeachment charges were brought against Trump in the articles of impeachment, it was clear that the Democrats were just itching to find anything they could get their hands on to impeach Trump, and they finally settled on those charges I mentioned earlier. To be clear, it does appear that the Democrats are ploughing through this whole impeachment process without being absolutely clear what is and isn’t allowed in terms of due process. For example, what exactly is Trump being charged with according to the constitution’s definition? Treason? Bribery? Abuse of power? How do all of Trump’s actions really stack up and is there a strong case? A number of legal experts do not think so, and I agree with them. The case against Trump, though on the surface sounds good, is actually rather flimsy. How it pans out remains to be seen, but it does look like Trump will be impeached, but conviction is another matter altogether.

Trump vs 2020 Presidential Candidates

Markets are bracing themselves for another election year in 2020. And with that comes uncertainty. However, one can form a good idea of what to expect based on each candidates ideas and policies when it comes to business. For example, Elizabeth Warren’s huge wealth tax isn’t seen as something hugely popular and she appears anti-business. Bernie Sanders is clearly pro-people and not pro-business, and Joe Biden is seen as being moderately business-friendly.

In fact, given how markets have performed with Trump in power, markets are looking to extend that run, and investors are hoping Trump gets re-elected so that this Bull Run can continue. Anyone other than Trump in the White House and markets might not do so well.

There is also that little matter of North Korea. Whether or not you like Trump, he is the first sitting US President to have stepped foot into North Korea. And he brought the leader of North Korea to the table with 2 summits. Kim Jong Un also appears far more receptive to doing a deal with Trump, and not any other candidate, who all appear very likely have a more hostile attitude towards Kim.

Bold Predictions

This might not go down well with some, and is surely not a popular opinion, but I’m going to make some bold predictions based on what I’ve been hearing and seeing on the ground (not mainstream media). I accept that I could very well be totally wrong, and that’s alright. I’m a trader after all, and we are never right 100% of the time anyway, as that’s part and parcel of the game.

Bold Predication #1 – Trump Will Be Impeached But Not Convicted

It is clear the Democrats are rushing through passage of the impeachment process just to get it done for the sake of impeaching him, just because he’s Trump. However I do not believe the case against him is a strong one. In fact I feel the opposite; the case is rather flimsy and weak. So Trump is very likely going to get impeached, but not convicted. Also note, the Senate is controlled by the Republicans, so the 2/3 majority needed for conviction looks even less likely.

Bold Predication #2 – Trump Gets Re-Elected For A 2nd Term In Office

This one is contingent on him NOT being convicted naturally, and do not forget the fact that this whole impeachment process could backfire for the Democrats. So if he is not convicted, then I do think that Trump is in pole position to get re-elected. This is based on news from friends, old classmates, and contacts on the ground in the U.S. itself. They feel the sentiment on the ground towards Trump’s term and it has never been stronger or happier. Jobs reports are coming in hugely positive, interest rates have been cut this year, and the markets are reaching new all-time highs. The sentiment is that Trump is a breath of fresh air with his antics, and despite what the “totally neutral” mainstream media says about him, things on the ground are better than ever, with a shift back to “one of those” popular Democrats seen as being more of the same from 2008 to 2016, and what good is that?